When
analyzing companies, investors can easily
get caught up in details such as performance
figures, stock ratios and valuation tools
while forgetting a more basic question:
how does the company actually make money?
A solid business model remains the bedrock
of every successful investment. To distinguish
the great companies from the losers, investors
should learn how to describe and evaluate
companies' business models.
What's a Business
Model?
Quite simply, the business model is how
the company makes money. It also explains
the sources of the company's revenues, how
much these sources pay and how often. So
it's not enough to say that a company sells
PCs or burgers. You need to go deeper and
learn the structure through which the dollars
are earned. Does the doughnut business include
franchises or company-owned outlets? Does
the burger company own the outlet real estate,
as McDonald's does, or does it lease the
space? Does the PC maker generate most of
its money through direct sales, as Dell
does, or does it sell via retailers, like
Hewlett Packard does?
The business model also
refers to how product delivery brings in
revenue. Think about the shaving industry.
Gillette is happy to sell its Mach III razor
handle at cost, or even lower, because the
company can go on to sell you the profitable
razor refills, over and over. Their business
model rests on giving away the handle and
making profits from a steady stream of high-margin
razor blade sales.
Electric shavers have a
different model. They cost much more than
the Gillette handle. Remington, a manufacturer
of electric shavers, makes most of its money
upfront, rather than from a stream of blade
refill sales.
As industries change, companies
can't always afford to stick to the same
business model. Think about Kodak and the
fast-changing camera business. Traditional
film cameras generate a lot of money for
the company, since users have to buy roll
after roll of film to take pictures and
then spend even more getting the pictures
developed. But new digital cameras do away
with film sales and processing fees. So,
in response, Kodak has had to create a new
business model. The company has established
digital printing centers, where users can
have their digital camera pictures printed
on genuine Kodak paper. The business model
that was once based on film sales and processing
has become a model based primarily on photograph
printing.
A company's business model
isn't always obvious. Consider General Motors.
You might think GM makes its money selling
cars and trucks. In fact, more than 60%
of GM's earnings in 2003 came from finance
payments, not auto sales.
Business models can also
be downright counterintuitive. Conventional
wisdom says that a retailer that crams stores
close to one another will cannibalize own-store
sales. But coffee retailer Starbucks has
a business model that rests on just that:
having coffee shops within blocks of each
other. It turns out that market saturation
drives up consumption, creates virtual wall-to-wall
billboards for Starbucks, and cuts back
on customer lines at more popular outlets.
It also keeps competitors off the street.
Assessing the Business Model
So how do you know whether a business model
is any good? That's a tricky question. Joan
Magretta, former editor of the Harvard Business
Review, highlights two critical tests for
sizing up business models. When business
models don't work, it's because they don't
make sense and/or the numbers just don't
add up to profits.
Because it includes companies
that have suffered heavy losses and even
bankruptcy, the airline industry is a good
place to find business models that stopped
making sense. For years, major carriers
like American, Delta and Continental built
their businesses around a "hub-and-spoke"
system, in which all flights routed through
a handful of big city airports. By ensuring
that seats were filled, the business model
produced big profits for airlines.
But the business model
that was once a source of strength for the
major carriers became a burden. It turned
out that competitive carriers like Southwest
and JetBlue could shuttle planes between
smaller centres at a lower cost - in part
because of lower labor costs, but also because
they avoided some of the operational inefficiencies
that occur in the hub-and-spoke structure.
As competitive carriers drew away more customers,
the old carriers were left to support their
large, extended networks with fewer passengers
- a condition made even worse when traffic
began to fall in 2001. To fill seats, the
airlines had to offer more and deeper discounts.
No longer able to produce profits, the hub-and-spoke
model no longer made sense.
For examples of business
models that failed the numbers test, we
can look at U.S. automakers. In 2003, to
compete against foreign manufacturers, Ford,
Chrysler and General Motors offered customers
such deep discounts and interest-free financing
that they effectively sold vehicles for
less than it cost to make them. That dynamic
squeezed all the profits out of Ford's U.S.
operations and threatened to do the same
for Chrysler and GM. To remain viable, the
big automakers had to revamp their business
models.
Conclusion
When evaluating a company as a possible
investment, learn exactly how it makes its
money. Then think about how attractive and
profitable that business model is. Admittedly,
the business model doesn't tell you everything
about a company's prospects, but investors
with a business model frame of mind can
make better sense of the financial data
and business information. It simplifies
the job of identifying the companies that
are the best investments. |